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Well this week started fire then calmed down in a pathetic mind scratching loss on Sunday. Lets look at the week that was.

This week the SGP went 4-3 for +.75 unit. Some numbers are below.

Last Month 10-11 for -1.87 units. This is since the SGP return.

NFL 3-3 for -.15 unit
NBA 0-3 for -3.22 unit. This continues to elude me.
CBB 6-4 for 1.6 units.
CFB 1-1 for -.1 unit.

There are the breakdowns by sport. It is so early since the return of the SGP to panic or worry about any one sport or record. Things are goin fine. I wanted to put out the previous years SGP numbers here for you all. Just as a reminder that things will be all good.

2015 (OCT-DEC) the SGP went 49-45 for +1.75 units
2016 the SGP went 190-155 for +28.35 units.
2017 Jan I went 23-23 for -.4 unit

During the span of those two years I had 4 losing months. I hit at a rate of 54%. Which is well above profitable. Especially when you add the bases ML plays in there. I am only putting those numbers out there to let newer guys who wasn’t around to understand that there were good times for the SGP. It is a great way to play this sports betting game. But there has and always will be swings. Looking back I wish I would’ve just...


Hey guys. I am tired. Been 11 months of doing this volume approach and it has sure had its ups and downs. But it is a incredible amount of work. And at times very stressful. At this time in my life I don’t want it anymore. But I remember how much more I liked it now back when me and Bones started this whole thing three years ago. Wow, it has been that long. So in this blog post I am going to go over the differences. What to expect going forward. Lets dig on into it.

The differences between the SGP and the volume I have been playing over the last 11 months.

I don’t have to tell you guys about this volume. It is nuts. And then you add that I do live betting some, which I never release, and middles which I don’t release it can be difficult sometimes to track. Trying to write up 6-10 plays a day takes a lot of time. And then there is the swings. Man, there are big swings which I know causes me stress and sure it does you guys also.

Now this year as of now I am up about 50 units. At one time I was as high as 75 units. The thing is this is kinda misleading. With the volume I have been playing I have played it at 1% of bankroll. Under the old way I usually only won 25-35 units a year on average. But when I played the SGP I played at 5% of bankroll. So you can see that actually this provided better profit. Early in this year I thought I would...


For those who have followed me or read the old blog much you know how I preach if your going to learn to win in this game you need to set your own lines. I don’t really see any other way to do it long term. I get a lot of questions about how I do it. So I have decided to write this comprehensive article on methods, a little about how I do it and some the tools you NEED to have to do it.

Where do you come up with that line?

This is probably the most common question I get in the last 3 years I have been releasing plays on Onside and Twitter. So I am going to go thru a few methods of making lines and Power Ratings. Some resources. And a few must haves to do it correctly.

First let me take a shot at the why of the whole thing. The why of Power Ratings is basically to get a line of your own. The reason this is so important is when you have this line of your own making you can compare this to the Vegas line to find perceived value in a game you wish to bet. Then you can look into the market (future article) and find your bets. And hopefully do so successfully. Lets look at a few tools you may need first.

1. A Rotation book.

This is a must have. I personally have a yearly subscription to Dons Best rotation schedule. It cost about 50 bucks a year and is...


Well it wasn’t a good one for the SGP. It’s ok. There will be those type of weeks. The plan is always to win but thats just not how this always works. We will look at record and the picks. Lets get into it.

The SGP record over the last 7 days was 2-5 for -3.4 units. Rough outing this week. Some of the SGP #s since return....

Overall 6-8 for -2.62
NCAA football 1-1 -.1
NFL 2-2 -.15
NBA 0-2 -2.12
NCAA BB 3-3 -.25

Not good when your having -$$ in all of them. The SGP is in its return infancy so don’t panic. I am sure we will be fine as time moves on. Lets look at these plays last week.

HOU/BAL over 39.5. Well this game went to shit in second half. Nothing but FG. Baltimore was content to sit on ball whole second half. It happens though and we lost by hook.

LOU +8.5. Lost this one by hook to. If you watched this you know how exactly bad this loss was. Purdue missed a FT and then got the rebound to cover. Just make it we win. LOU gets RB we win. But lost this one by the hook again. Mad.

ILLST/NEV under 151.5. Never really close. They hammered 3s so hard first 10 minutes that it was practically over then.

BOISE ST +7.5. Boise won straight up. Didn’t see one second of this game.

OSU -4. Pretty easy cover. Didn’t seem even as close as this game should’ve been. And...


AGREE 1.04M DISAGREE



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Arkansas LR (+10.0) at
Bradley (-10.0) over +124.0

Game time: Wednesday 12/13, 8:00 PM

Arkansas LR 46 FINAL
Bradley 86  view game

Icon-ok Over (+124.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $2000.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Wednesday, 13 Dec 2017 2:19 PM

pick locked in about 22 hours ago

Arkansas LR vs Bradley Pick

Tonight I got ARK-LR/Bradley ov 124.5 -104. Plenty out there. Even a couple 124s. This is a numbers based oppo the public play. My number and SP agreed to getting over a number of 126.5. So the value at 124.5 is decent. The public is once again (like our play last night) hammering the under in this game. 74% of the tickets and about 84% of the $$ are on the under. This line opened at 123. And...

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AGREE 828K DISAGREE



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Fordham (+11.0) at
Rutgers (-11.0) over +126.0

Game time: Tuesday 12/12, 7:00 PM

Fordham 63 FINAL
Rutgers 75  view game

Icon-ok Over (+125.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $1961.54

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 12 Dec 2017 1:52 PM

pick locked in 2 days ago

Fordham vs Rutgers Pick

Got Fordham/Rutgers OV 124.5 -110. It is available at BetUS, 1tiger76. Play is still good at 125. This is a lot about my numbers, a lot about the market which weirdly is in big time favor of the under. The teams combined 3-7 to the under. That shit means nothing to me. 83% of tickets and 86% of money is feeding the under. Ill go with my number (129) and against the masses and take the over...

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AGREE 941K DISAGREE



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Toronto Raptors (-6.0) at
Los Angeles Clippers (+6.0) over +214.5

Game time: Monday 12/11,10:35 PM

Toronto Raptors 91 FINAL
Los Angeles Clippers 96  view game

Icon-ok Under (+216.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $2040.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Monday, 11 Dec 2017 11:23 AM

pick locked in 3 days ago

Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Clippers Pick

Taking the under on TOR/LAC at 216 -103 tonight. My numbers are good here for the under. The line opened at 216. Dropped to 214.5 for a bit and then just recently came back. 70% of the tix are on the over but there is some $$ shading the under. About 40% of money. Books will need the under. There is still a chance this could get to 216.5, but I feel may go the other way. These teams have been...

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AGREE 1.01M DISAGREE



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Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) over +38.5

Game time: Sunday 12/10, 1:00 PM

Green Bay Packers 27 FINAL
Cleveland Browns 21  view game

Icon-ok Cleveland Browns (+3.0) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 09 Dec 2017 11:12 AM

pick locked in 5 days ago

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Pick

Got the Browns +3 +105 here. This opened at 6. Sharp money has bet it down large. My line was GB -5. My SP favored the Browns though. 75% of tickets have been coming in on the Packers but money is pretty even maybe even shading the Dog. I like what I saw from Browns last week. Gordon is a huge upgrade and this could be the difference in this game. I actually like them on the ML also. The...

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AGREE 878K DISAGREE



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Utah Jazz (+1.5) at
Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over +198.0

Game time: Saturday 12/9, 8:35 PM

Utah Jazz 100 FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks 117  view game

Icon-ok Utah Jazz (+2.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 09 Dec 2017 8:51 AM

pick locked in 5 days ago

Utah Jazz vs Milwaukee Bucks Pick

Taking the Jazz +3 -110 tonight. At this writing this is coming down to 2.5 in places but there are plenty of 3s left. My line on this game was a pk. My SP like the dog to win. Stats I like lean to Jazz. Both teams have been performing well as of late. The tickets are close to split but the $$ is coming in on the dog. I’m rolling with it here. GLA!

Other leans today....
Army/Navy...

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Normally I write about sports betting and finding value picking games. But I am a huge OSU fan and this week off another horrible life ending loss by Buckeye Nation I have decided to look into numbers a different way. How does Urban stack up as the OSU coach and what can he do to repair this team and teams going forward.

Well almost any conversation I have had with Buckeye fans about our coach in the last couple years it almost aways leads to this statement. “I wish we had Tressel back”. So I decided to start here. How do they matchup? To do this I looked beyond just records. Below is the information, I will follow up with some analysis.

.

Each coach in their first 5 complete years.

Stat - Tressel vs Meyer

Record- 50-13 vs 61-6
Win streak- 19 vs 24 (and a 23)
Michigan- 4-1 vs 5-0
Undefeated- 1 vs 1
Vs top 25- 19-8 vs 15-4
Vs top 10- 6-2 vs 7-3
Big 10- 30-10 vs 40-3
Bowl games- 4-1 vs 3-2
Big 10 titles- 2 vs 1
National titles- 1 vs 1

Both of them had great success by any standard I believe. And nothing really stuck out to me there. One difference is the Big 10 w/l record. But this can be explained...


AGREE 894K DISAGREE



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St. John's (+5.0) at
Arizona State (-5.0) over +158.0

Game time: Friday 12/8, 8:00 PM

St. John's 70 FINAL
Arizona State 82  view game

Icon-ok Arizona State (-5.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $1961.54

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Friday, 08 Dec 2017 1:53 PM

pick locked in 6 days ago

St. John's vs Arizona State Pick

522 AZST -5 -102. Heritage. Sometimes you just need to go against all your typical type plays and just go with your guts. This is one of those times for me. My line on the game was a pk. My SP were split on who will win this one. The public is all over the favorite. (80%) The $$ is piled on them to. Almost all of it. (95%). All this being said......I still like them here. They have covered 6/7...

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AGREE 755K DISAGREE



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E. Washington (+5.5) at
San Francisco (-5.5) over +142.5

Game time: Thursday 12/7,10:00 PM

E. Washington 71 FINAL
San Francisco 81  view game

Icon-ok E. Washington (+5.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Thursday, 07 Dec 2017 11:27 AM

pick locked in 7 days ago

E. Washington vs San Francisco Pick

E Wash +6 -115. 1tiger76. There were plenty of 6s out there. My line was SF -3 so the line value was there. The SP both agreed with the cover also. Had a BL system on it about a dog facing a team on rest and on a losing ATS streak. The tickets are pretty split here but $$ is in favor of E Wash with the numbers guys. I’m going with my numbers here in the late night game. Good Luck All!

Only...

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AGREE 838K DISAGREE



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Wisconsin (+4.5) at
Temple (-4.5) over +133.0

Game time: Wednesday 12/6, 7:00 PM

Wisconsin 55 FINAL
Temple 59  view game

Icon-ok Wisconsin (+4.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $1925.93

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Wednesday, 06 Dec 2017 4:21 PM

pick locked in 8 days ago

Wisconsin vs Temple Pick

Wisconsin +4.5 -105. 1tiger.76. My line on this game was Temple -1. Gives some line value at this number. The SP favored Wisconsin to win. The public side is Temple grabbing around 66% of tickets on the game. The money though favors the Badgers here just slightly. Some sharp moves on them. No real liability for ML either. Wisconsin has started slowly dropping 3/5 both SU and ATS. Temple winning...

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Well guys, It’s back and I am glad. The SGP started out 4-3 in its first week back. I would take that every week for the rest of my life and laugh. Remember the SGP is all about gaining ground steadily on the book. It is long term winning.

In this blog post I will tap into the past week. Talk a little about upcoming articles. Talk a little about upcoming weekend. Lets get into it.

Well week one was great. 4-3 for +.78 of a unit. Felt great to get back to the SGP. Wish I would’ve done it sooner. Although I kept going volume myself the reduced workload was nice. And after this month I will be playing a very much lower volume also. Maybe not SGP low but very close to it. But thats me lets get back to what we do. Here’s how it broke down last week....

Utah +7. Liked the pick and the spot. Wasn’t ever close. Utah shot 35% and you don’t win or cover doing so. Was the only pick all week we were never really in.

CHI +5.5. This one was frustrating. Mid 3rd we had a almost 20 point lead and let it all go to lose the cover even. Out scored 30 to 19 in both 3rd and 4th. But oh well..... get down with the side you like and except the consequences.

WIU +3. Got the cover and the SU win. Made a solid comeback to do so.

WASH -7. One thing you may have...


AGREE 777K DISAGREE



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Evansville (+2.5) at
Bowling Green (-2.5) over +136.5

Game time: Tuesday 12/5, 7:00 PM

Evansville 91 FINAL
Bowling Green 76  view game

Icon-ok Evansville (+3.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $1952.38

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 05 Dec 2017 1:31 PM

pick locked in 9 days ago

Evansville vs Bowling Green Pick

707 Evansville +3.5 -103 heritage. I got Evansville here favored by 2 according to my numbers. Line opened at +3.5 and has remained static. My SP agreed. One had it covering and one had them winning outright. I believe we do have a WTF situation here. The tickets for this game are pretty split. Early in the season here for these two. Stats I like are pretty similar. EVAN is better from arch and...

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AGREE 1.02M DISAGREE



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Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) at
Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) over +42.5

Game time: Monday 12/4, 8:30 PM

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 FINAL
Cincinnati Bengals 20  view game

Icon-ok Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $2000.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Monday, 04 Dec 2017 10:16 AM

pick locked in 10 days ago

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Pick

Got CIN +5 -110. 5s are avail at sportsbook, Carib, and 6 at Bolivada. My line was 5. SP were split. This line opened at 6.5. 75% or so of tixs and money are on the favorite here. But we have seen some significant RLM on the dog. Had a BL system on Bengals here also. Pinney has the line alone at 4 and that alone makes me intrigued with this game. Once you dig a little into the game you will see...

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AGREE 488K DISAGREE



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Ohio State (-3.5) at
Wisconsin (+3.5) over +51.0

Game time: Saturday 12/2, 8:00 PM

Ohio State 27 FINAL
Wisconsin 21  view game

Icon-ok Ohio State (-4.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $1970.87

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 02 Dec 2017 11:43 AM

pick locked in 12 days ago

Ohio State vs Wisconsin Pick

Fuckit......OSU -4 -103. I am going with guts and heart here. I like OSU big even though a lot of cappers and numbers point the other way.




It's not often I read something that excited me like this book did. It's informative as much as it is funny. No new sports bettor should lay a bet without reading. A seasoned sports bettor can pick up some stuff here also. There have only been a few good books ever written on the subject that are even worth the paper they were wrote on. Good Teams Cover Great Teams Win is definitely on the list of ones that were.

Pat Hagerty has written a gem. He starts out like most do with a introduction introducing himself. He tells about his childhood and how he got into sports betting. He moves into the first chapter talking about how he picks games. In this chapter alone the is enough good advice for the low cost of the book. He touches on bank roll management and volume of bets. And some on the process he uses to prepare for the week. It should be said here that Pat only bets pro and college football. But the principles he uses to do so apply to any sports and if I ever get to sit with him for a beer I would advise him to use the same type principles and move on to other sports.

The next 20 chapters talk more about the types of plays he makes. Pat plays certain situations or triggers if you would. He states in chapter 1 you should try to hit several of these with each bet. Some of these are, Fade...


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Boise State (+7.0) at
Oregon (-7.0) over +145.0

Game time: Friday 12/1, 9:30 PM

Boise State 73 FINAL
Oregon 70  view game

Icon-ok Boise State (+6.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $2210.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Friday, 01 Dec 2017 1:35 PM

pick locked in 13 days ago

Boise State vs Oregon Pick

Boise ST +7.5 -110. There are just a couple 7.5s out there. 7 is also a solid number. A little against my numbers here. My line was dead on 7. My SP were spit. But the market is favorable for Boise ST. And even though Oregon has been underperforming and Boise playing well over 60% of tickets are coming in on Ducks. The Stats I like kinda favor the dog here. With those and the market I am...

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AGREE 45K DISAGREE



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New England Patriots (-7.5) at
Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over +49.0

Game time: Sunday 12/3, 1:00 PM

New England Patriots 23 FINAL
Buffalo Bills 3  view game

Icon-ok Buffalo Bills (+8.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Thursday, 30 Nov 2017 10:27 PM

pick locked in 14 days ago




AGREE 1.09M DISAGREE



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New England Patriots (-7.5) at
Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over +49.0

Game time: Sunday 12/3, 1:00 PM

New England Patriots 23 FINAL
Buffalo Bills 3  view game

Icon-ok Buffalo Bills (+8.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Thursday, 30 Nov 2017 10:13 PM

pick locked in 14 days ago

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Pick

For Sunday I am taking Buffalo +9 -105. My line was NE -7.5. Gives some line value. The SP were better than that even. It’s never easy to go against NE but it seems a great spot here to do just that. After covering that huge number last week against MIA they need to go play a better Buffalo team on the road. Buffalo is of a straight up win and cover at KC last week. 80% of tickets on the pats....

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AGREE 1.06M DISAGREE



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Memphis U (+4.5) at
UAB (-4.5) over +142.5

Game time: Thursday 11/30, 8:00 PM

Memphis U 56 FINAL
UAB 71  view game

Icon-ok Memphis U (+4.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Thursday, 30 Nov 2017 1:23 PM

pick locked in 14 days ago

Memphis U vs UAB Pick

Got Memphis +5 -110 tonight. There are a few 5s out there but some shops are at 4.5. I like the play either way and to be honest with ya all I have action on both 4.5 and 5. My line on the game was Memphis -1.5 to give me a WTF situation. And the line value is great also. My SP were good one winning outright and one covering. There is a system for a Dog facing a team off rest on ATS losing...

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AGREE 758K DISAGREE



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Illinois State (+14.0) at
Nevada (-14.0) over +149.0

Game time: Wednesday 11/29,10:00 PM

Illinois State 68 FINAL
Nevada 98  view game

Icon-ok Under (+150.5) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Wednesday, 29 Nov 2017 4:51 PM

pick locked in 15 days ago

Illinois State vs Nevada Pick

767 ILLST/NEV under 151.5 -110. My line on this game for the total was 144. The Score projections agreed with that number. This line opened around 147. I liked it there but not near as much as I like this above number. Missed on the 152 that was available for short time before it got steamed. Had a system with a under after a double digit win. Which has hit for us a couple times already. The...

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AGREE 833K DISAGREE



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Louisville (+8.0) at
Purdue (-8.0) over +149.5

Game time: Tuesday 11/28, 8:00 PM

Louisville 57 FINAL
Purdue 66  view game

Icon-ok Louisville (+8.0) L

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 28 Nov 2017 1:57 PM

pick locked in 16 days ago

Louisville vs Purdue Pick

LOU +8.5 -105. My line on this game tonight was Purdue -4.5. Got a little line value here. My projections agree with that assessment. The line opened at 7 and I liked it there. There has been some $$ on the favorite to move the line to the current 8-8.5. Louisville is getting around 55-57% of tickets depending on shop. With the line value I see I will take it anyways for todays SGP....

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AGREE 1.21M DISAGREE



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Houston Texans (+7.5) at
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) over +39.0

Game time: Monday 11/27, 8:30 PM

Houston Texans 16 FINAL
Baltimore Ravens 23  view game

Icon-ok Over (+39.0) Push Cashed Back $1000.00

$1,000.00 Pick documented: Monday, 27 Nov 2017 12:28 PM

pick locked in 17 days ago

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Pick

Got the over tonight as HOU plays the Ravens. Over 39.5 -110. My line on the game was 46.5. A lot of line value. My SP agreed that the 39.5 was to many. Had a solid system based on conference non division game based on OFF/DEF stats. This opened at 38 and has been bet up by Joe Public. But as this NFL season has been telling us the last 5-6 weeks is Joe isn’t always wrong. 75% or so of the...

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