Juicy ML play here but we feel confident. We would also recommend a PL play with STL tonight. STL is 6-1 SU and ATS at home this season. We have the 6th ranked home offense against the 28th ranked home defense. In the L3 matchups, AZ is averaging 0.67 gpg compared to STL at 3.33. We love the UNDER here, but our fear is that STL would cover the OVER on their own. AZ gives up 4.0 gpg on the...

There is a lot of value on the UNDER play tonight, despite the fact that these two teams faced off on November 3 and had a total of 9 goals. Take out EDM's 6 goal performance in that game and give them only a 3 goal performance (close to league average), and EDM is averaging 2.1 gpg over their L10 games. Follow that up with the fact that EDM has the top ranked road defense in the league,...

SAC is 0-4 ATS against teams with defensive units allowing 106+ ppg, which tells us that their offensive struggles continue even against bad teams and they cannot cover. PHI is 8-2 ATS on the season and 5-1 ATS on the road. SAC is a horrible, horrible first half team averaging only 39.6 ppg in the first half over the last 5 games, and just 44.7 on the season. We will make a play with PHI on...

This line has opened at 213.5 and has shot up to 216. I think this is an overreaction to recent totals in NY games. The fact remains that ORL relies heavily on perimeter shooting. ORL has posted totals of 101, 83, and 88 in their last three games. NY averages 95.7 ppg on the road, and 106 on the season. NY played last night in NY, then flew down to ORL for tonight's game. 216 is too high...

The OVER in MN games is 8-4 on the season, 5-0 on the road. The OVER in TOR games is 11-4 on the season, 6-2 at home. Game totals average 8.1 at home in TOR games this season, and 7.2 in road games for MN. From a shot percentage standpoint, TOR is statistically reliable shooting 11.9/11.7/11.5% across season/home/L5 splits. MN is very similar, albeit their numbers are just slightly less. ...

Similar to our write up for the BOS team total going over 2.5 for two units, we like our over chances here as well. BOS averaging 3.25 on the road against a NYR defense giving up 3.09 at home and 3.44 gpg on the season. The OVER is 6-1 in NYR home games, and 8-2 on the season. NYR games have posted 107 goals in just 16 games this season. NYR is averaging 4.4 gpg over the L5 games and 3.2 on...

We are recommending a two unit play on BOS Team Total OVER 2.5 goals in tonight's matchup at NYR. From a rankings matchup analysis, BOS comes in with a 10 point advantage when cross comparing AWAY O/HOME D and AWAY D/HOME O. NYR gives up 3.44 gpg on the season, 3.09 gpg in home games and 3.4 over the last 5 games. BOS is scoring 3.2 gpg on the road, shooting 12.5%. We have the 10th ranked...

The spot causes this line to be where it is, but the fact remains that BUF has 4 wins on the season: ANA, BOS, DET, AZ. 2 if not 3 of those teams should not be factored in and therefore, BUF has one decent win in its file for the season. While WASH has under performed based upon prior years, they are still the better team. BUF is 1-3-1 at home and WASH is a much better road team than home...

There is value here at -101 on this site and -110 elsewhere. LAK is 10-4 SU on the season, 5-1 against a team with a losing record, 4-0 off 2 days rest. They are offensively productive with a 10.1% SOG, while stingy on the other end with a 6.9% SOG. ANA PP% is 11.9. LAK is statistically reliable on DEF giving up 2.2 gpg on the season, 2.1 on the road, and 2.4 L5. ANA, likewise, is...

FLA games are 11-2 OVER on the season and 4-1 on the raod. FLA is averaging 3.62 gpg on the season, giving up an average of 4.32. They give up 37.38 shots per game and CAR takes a high average of 35.20. FLA's penalty kills are horrible, and opponents score on average 28.85% of the time. Looking at team totals, most shops have the team totals at 3 and with -140 to -150 juice, yet the game...

We like two plays offered by cappedsports in this matchup. We think there is good value on the over here because of how EDM unders have cashed this season on the road. While the UNDER is 4-0 in road games for EDM, keep in mind those matchups were against CHI, PHI, and PITT. This is their first road game since, and they embark on a 4 game road trip along the east coast. NYI is averaging 3.86...

The UNDER is 6-3-1 in the last 10 matchups between these two squads, and is 4-2 in L6 and 4-1 when playing in ATL, L5. The UNDER is 7-3 on the season in BOS games and 6-0 when BOS is on the road. It's important to know that the two most recent OVER results came when the total was 193.5 and 195. BOS is holding opponents to 93.20 ppg on the season and are a shade better on the road, allowing...

PHO won 122-114 at BK back on 10/31. BK is 1-3 ATS on the road this season. BK has been out on the west coast since 11/3 when they allowed LAL to put up 124 against them, and are allowing opponents to score at a 48.2% rate in L5 games and 49.3% on the road this season. They are only shooting, however, 41.2% in the L5 and 42.8% on the road this season. Opponents have outrebounded them in the...

From an estimated powerline standpoint, Statfox has MIN here as a -111. We tend to agree. Historically, MIN has won 8 of last 10 games in this matchup when playing in BOS, and 14 of last 20 when these teams face each other. BOS is dealing with injuries. The key for MN will be whether their strong power play units averaging 26.67% can chip away at a solid BOS penalty kill unit whose kill...

This shapes up to be a solid OVER play tonight. CBJ giving up 3.43 goals on the road, and NYR giving up 3.10 at home. CBJ penalty kill on the road is not great, killing only 75% of opportunities. CBJ allowing 32.29 shots per game on the road as well. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups here and 9-3 in last 12. CBJ overs are 4-1 in last 5 games on the road, and 7-1 when CBJ plays at...

DET scoring 2.7 on the road and VAN giving up 2.5 gpg at home. VAN games have gone UNDER in 4 of last 6 and the two OVERs were against PITT and WASH. VAN is holding opponents to 1.6 gpg L5 games, and only scoring 2.4. Likewise, DET has been solid on DEF and allowing only 2.2. DET games have gone UNDER 4 of last 5 games and 10 of last 15. VAN has been able to play strong at home against the...

Some powerful UNDER trends apply to this game. From a global perspective, we know WASH plays tough D, especially at home. Better than that, they are only scoring 2.60 at home, albeit we recognize they are playing an AZ squad who gives up 4.13 gpg on the season and 4.38 on the road. BUT, the UNDER is 4-1 L5 in H2H action, and 13-3 when they match up in WASH L16. AZ is scoring 2.6 gpg on the...

This might feel like a chase the train ride play with VGK and taking them as an Underdog. But, they have some statistical advantages that support the value play here. VGK allowing 2.85 gpg on the season. VGK is 6-3 as a dog and 4-2 ATS away. The total is up to 6.5 today and we are not willing to take that OVER. VGK has a 10th ranked defense as opposed to 27 for TOR when it comes to goals...

You can still find a 5.5 total in this game. The over in this matchup is 7-3 L10 and 4-1 L5. DAL scoring 3.33 gpg at home on the season. Both teams are shooting 23% plus on power plays. DAL has gone OVER in 15 of last 22 at home. WPG has gone OVER in 14 of last 19 games and 15 of last 22 on the road.