In this article you'll find a fight-by-fight guide on how to bet this card, along with my predictions for each bout. This guide touches on the importance of value in a line, rather than strictly predictions. So let's get to it!
Juliana Lima vs Tecia Torres:
If you’re betting, all that’s really worth touching is Fight Goes to Decision, or o2.5 rounds. Both are virtually the same odds as Torres ml as of writing.
Torres should be the better fighter in virtually every area, but given the price in combination with her taking the fight on short-notice, I would not recommend a bet on her. Not to mention, the general flukiness of WMMA. If you badly want to choose a side, I would say that the value lies with Lima, but I would pass and just play the over if anything.
PREDICTION: Tecia Torres by Decision
Gray Maynard vs Teruto Ishihara
A major contrast of styles here. Ishihara is known to be a Wildman who will hunt for the KO, while Maynard is a grinding grappler, though he possesses knockout power himself. Maynard’s chin has been suspect the past few years, which favors Ishihara. I believe that the bet for this fight is Ishihara by TKO/KO, though Maynard’s line has value.
Ishihara is too wild (in and out of the cage) and inconsistent to bet at his current line of -280 against an experienced veteran like Gray Maynard, let alone one who has his wrestling skills. I honestly am leaning towards betting on Gray Maynard, though I think Ishihara gets the win here. But I cannot advocate betting on Ishihara straight up at the current price.
I may pass on this fight. But if you need the action, I’d play Ishihara by TKO/KO, or Maynard’s ml, or possibly Maynard’s decision line if you want the longer odds.
PREDICTION: Teruto Ishihara by TKO/KO
Aspen Ladd vs Jessica Eye
I wouldn’t advocate backing either side here, and the only play I would make on this fight is o2.5 or Fight Goes to Decision. Not too excited for this fight
PREDICTION: Jessica Eye by Decision
Ed Herman vs CB Dollaway
Again, I cannot advocate backing either side in this fight with the lines as they are, and how volatile these fighters are. If bound to a side, I would take Ed Herman, but I will likely be passing unless the odds shift.
Ed Herman has decent takedown defense, and CB has shown a willingness to stand more and more in his fights lately, regardless of how it has turned out. Ed Herman should have the power advantage, and possibly the overall striking advantage as neither guy is incredibly technical. CB is prone to leaving himself open after engaging, so a counter from Herman could be coming. However, CB does still have very strong wrestling, and while Herman has solid grappling of his own and decent takedown defense, the advantage here resides with Dollaway. Personally, no outcome in this fight would surprise me. Both guys could finish or get finished, and both guys could take a decision.
PREDICTION: Ed Herman by TKO/KO (UPSET ALERT)
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder
Hill has been talking about wanting a finish, but I would just play the over. As you can probably tell by now, this is not a great card for betting. And there are at least 4 fights that probably won’t be good for spectating, but still plenty of other reasons to be excited for this card.
PREDICTION: Angela Hill by Decision
Jordan Johnson vs Marcel Fortuna
Johnson has ferocious wrestling for the division, and looks solid on his feet. It will be interesting to see how his wrestling does against a strong BJJ grappler like Fortuna. Personally, I think at the higher weight classes, wrestling is more powerful than BJJ, which will lead to a decision or late finish for Johnson. But, if Fortuna’s BJJ can create sweeps and tricky situations, we may see a stand-up battle. Johnson should have a slight advantage in the striking, but Fortuna should have a power advantage. In this case, I still take Johnson, and likely by decision.
But again, with the odds juiced like they are, I’m likely passing on this fight.
PREDICTION: Johnson by Decision
Brad Tavares vs Elias Theodorou
Another fight that you should play the over in! How exciting. But in this fight, I can slightly advocate playing a side, and that is the side of Brad Tavares. Tavares should have better technical striking than Elias, and be able to fend off enough takedowns to take a close decision. Elias’ style of backing up and throwing weak kicks from distance shouldn’t bother Tavares, so he will mainly have to worry about the threat of the takedown, and he is a decent grappler himself.
This is a fight that should be a close decision, but at +odds and with a striking advantage, he is the play.
PREDICTION: Tavares by Decision (UPSET ALERT)
Marc Diakiese vs Drakkar Klose
Mark Diakiese is a flashy striker with some powerful wrestling, giving him all the tools to be a major player in the UFC some day. His opponent, Drakkar Klose is no slouch either. He smothers his opponents with relentless pressure, and is comfortable wherever the fight goes. Both men are undefeated, so somebody's 0 has to go.
I will likely be passing on this fight. I like Diakiese to take it, but Klose has a path to victory with his high-pressure, smothering style along with his wrestling. Diakiese should have a massive edge in the striking though, and training at ATT should do wonders for his takedown defense.
PREDICTION: Diakiese by Decision
Michael Johnson vs Justin Gaethje
Man, I am so excited to watch this fight. This has all the makings to produce some July fireworks, and is such an intriguing matchup. I did a write-up earlier on this fight in my “Reasons to be Excited for the TUF Finale” piece that I would check out.
Johnson has the technical striking advantage and better striking defense. Justin Gaethje leaves himself wide open to be hit and relies on his chin very frequently. Gaethje has a very strong wrestling game, which he could use to put Johnson on his back, but he won’t. Gaethje is going to go in there looking to brawl, and Johnson will oblige. What happens next? That’s anyone’s guess.
Personally, I think Johnson picks Gaethje apart early. But, I see Gaethje’s chin holding up and he will keep pressuring forward, landing some leg kicks and big shots of his own. I eventually see Johnson fading and Gaethje putting him away late.
Because of this, the ideal play would have been to bet MJ at around even money, and then look to live bet Gaethje, since there’s no guarantee Gaethje’s chin holds up or that MJ fades. I’d still recommend live betting for this fight (an article about that is also available HERE [Insert Link]), but if you don’t have the option then I would play Gaethje’s ml. This fight screams “Dog or Pass,” and I think Gaethje finds a way to win anyways.
PREDICTION: Gaethje by TKO/KO, somewhere in rounds 3-5 UPSET ALERT