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While staple of betting for the major sports, live betting is relatively new to MMA. While few books in the US offer live betting, it is one of the most valuable and profitable tools at your disposal.
In the United States, live betting for MMA is only offered in-between rounds, providing moneylines for both fighters, and odds on the fight going to decision. Live betting is an EXTREMELY profitable venture if you have a strong knowledge of MMA, and often times is a better option than betting fights before the event. There are several instances where this is the case, and I will break them down in this article.
Often times, you will find yourself with a lack of knowledge and available footage on a fighter. When this is the case, it is unwise to place a bet on either side of the bout. However, live betting provides you with several opportunities to pick up some action and make some money. By having the option to bet between rounds, you can get a feel for the fight and place your bet accordingly. While this option largely exists for the sake of action, there are several other scenarios that result in consistent +EV outcomes.
2. Fighters Who Fade
Live betting is ideal when dealing with a fighter who is known to be a fast starter and...
Along with every other event, UFC 215 should provide us with several excellent live betting opportunities. The easiest to spot is the new main event of Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko.
Personally, my lean in this fight is Valentina Shevchenko. But even though Shevchenko is my lean, I do not advise betting her prefight. Amanda Nunes is the best first round fighter the division, and a good chance exists that she finishes this fight early within the first 10 minutes. Additionally, only a very small chance exists that Shevchenko finishes this fight in the first round. Amanda Nunes is also known to fade late into fights, and this was extremely evident during the first fight between these two women. So while a good chance still exists that Nunes dominates the fight early, this is now a 5 round fight, rather than a 3 round fight like their previous bout.
Because of all this, I believe that the best course of action is to bet Amanda Nunes, Nunes winning ITD (or in rounds 1 and 2), or Nunes NSC prefight, and then begin live betting Shevchenko after round 1 or 2, depending on how the fight goes. This way, you protect yourself from the very plausible outcome of Nunes winning in the early rounds without losing any money on a Shevchenko bet, AND you...
While it it not the most star-studded card of the year and will likely be overshadowed by UFC 213 the following night, there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about the TUF Finale.
1. Jared Cannonier vs Steve Bosse
This fight has had me excited from the moment it was announced. I love the lower tier of the Light Heavyweight division. While the fights are rarely pretty, they often result in a quick finish (See: Ion Cutelaba vs Luis Henrique da Silva) or a war that is outright insanity (See: Steve Bosse vs Sean O'Connell). This fight could go either way.
Jared Cannonier has shown very high level striking with vicious knockout power in his UFC tenure, featuring some of the best footwork in the division. Steve Bosse has shown some vicious knockout power of his own, along with incredible explosiveness and an almost unparalleled willingness to brawl. Additionally, both guys have the cardio to work at a high pace for 3 rounds, which is very rare for the division. Combine all of these elements, and you've got fireworks in the making. If this fight is a fraction as wild as Bosse vs O'Connell or Cannonier vs Cutelaba, it is almost a lock for Fight of the Night. The possibility also exists that one of these stone-fisted 205ers ends the fight...
This fight night should present several excellent live betting opportunities, with the easiest to spot being the main event of Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum.
While things have not gone his way lately, Chris Weidman is still a very dangerous fighter with tremendous wrestling. Even counting this bad run, Weidman has never lost a first round in his career. Typically, Weidman is able to overwhelm his opponents early and get them to the ground; this should be the case against the much smaller Gastelum.
While there is absolutely nothing wrong with betting Weidman outright at his artificially inflated line of over +150, keeping your finger on the live bet button is the way to go. This is a five round fight, and lately Weidman has been showing fatigue after two. So, if he doesn’t get a finish in the first 10 minutes, momentum could easily shift in the favor of Gastelum who can use his speed and boxing to pick Weidman apart.
This is a common narrative that suggests betting on Weidman (or even Weidman ITD), and then live betting Gastelum after the first or second round as the optimal play. It is very unlikely that Kelvin finishes Weidman in within the first two rounds, making this a safer play than just betting Gastelum straight. ...
Time to enjoy a leisurely Sunday afternoon with a nice UFC card. With an intriguing main event of Gunnar Nelson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio, this should shape up to be a fun event. In addition to several exciting fights, this could be a good card to make some money on. I did not have time to study film for Daniel Teymur vs Danny Henry, Bofando vs Ward, or Mulheron vs Willis, so I will be omitting those fights from my predictions. But I feel good about the rest, so let's get to it!
Leslie Smith vs Amanda Lemos
Lemos is a newcomer so not much is known about her. After watching several of her previous fights, she seems to be predominately a striker. I was not impressed by her performances against lower level competition, and she showed cardio issues as well. Lemos is also taking this fight on short notice, which would not help her cardio.
Smith is a high-volume striker, as you'd expect from someone who trains with the Diaz Brothers. She likes to overwhelm her opponents, and I feel she will be able to do so in Glasgow, utilizing her reach advantage. -200 is a steep price to pay for a 9-7 fighter, so I would not confidently recommend a play at the current price, given how little is known about Lemos.
PREDICTION: Smith by Decision
Brett Johns vs Albert Morales
This is another...
After a successful TUF Finale, we’re back with more tips and predictions to lead to a profitable UFC 213. Due to a busy week, I was unable to find much footage on the 2 newcomer fights, so those will unfortunately be omitted from this article. But, there’s still plenty of other fights, so let’s get to it!
Rob Font vs Douglas “d’Silva” Silva de Andrade
A battle of arguably the simplest names in the UFC against one of the most complicated.
This fight should largely be a kickboxing match, those both guys are competent on the mat. Rob Font has a 3 inch reach advantage, which I feel he will be able to use effectively to keep D’Silva at range and set up big strikes down the middle. Neither man has ever been finished, so this fight is likely to go to decision, but both guys do pack some power. I like Font here, but the current odds greater than -300 are too steep for me to take in this fight. I considered his -3.5 point spread, but I could easily see D’Silva taking a round, so I’m passing here unless lines shift.
PREDICTION: Rob Font by Decision
Jordan Mein vs Belal Muhammad
The odds have shifted a lot in this fight,...
In this article you'll find a fight-by-fight guide on how to bet this card, along with my predictions for each bout. This guide touches on the importance of value in a line, rather than strictly predictions. So let's get to it!
Juliana Lima vs Tecia Torres:
If you’re betting, all that’s really worth touching is Fight Goes to Decision, or o2.5 rounds. Both are virtually the same odds as Torres ml as of writing.
Torres should be the better fighter in virtually every area, but given the price in combination with her taking the fight on short-notice, I would not recommend a bet on her. Not to mention, the general flukiness of WMMA. If you badly want to choose a side, I would say that the value lies with Lima, but I would pass and just play the over if anything.
PREDICTION: Tecia Torres by Decision
Gray Maynard vs Teruto Ishihara
A major contrast of styles here. Ishihara is known to be a Wildman who will hunt for the KO, while Maynard is a grinding grappler, though he possesses knockout power himself. Maynard’s chin has been suspect the past few years, which favors Ishihara. I believe that the bet for this fight is Ishihara by TKO/KO, though Maynard’s line has value.
Ishihara is too wild (in and out of the cage) and inconsistent to bet at his current line of...